Selling pressure dominated the market, pushing the MXV-Index down 0.32% to 2,929 points. Notably, November soybean futures fell to a seven-week low, while iron ore prices also retreated toward a one-year low.
According to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), agricultural commodities remained a focal point in the global commodities market during yesterday’s session (October 20). By the close, six out of seven tracked commodities had fallen into the red.
Specifically, November soybean futures dropped 0.42% to $458.66 per tonne, while December soybean meal futures saw a sharp decline of 1.72%, settling at $384.37 per tonne.
This trend was driven by an accelerating harvest pace in the United States, which brought new-crop supplies to the market and intensified selling pressure on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Furthermore, the selling pressure was compounded by hedge funds trimming their long positions—reducing their holdings by over 6,200 soybean contracts—alongside projections of a record 181.6-million-tonne harvest in Brazil, following an early planting season. These factors collectively weighed further on soybean prices.
In the domestic market, offers for soybean meal in the northern region continued to trend downward, despite relatively limited spot supplies throughout October.
Traders anticipate that supply-side pressure will ease significantly as soybean meal imports arriving at ports in November are expected to reach nearly 850,000 tonnes. According to Dao Thi Linh, Head of the Investment Consulting Department at HCT Joint Stock Company, the downward trend remains dominant in the short term, as seasonal supply pressure outweighs the positive impact of orders from China.
In the metals market, iron ore stands out as the only commodity moving against the broader trend. At the close of trading, iron ore prices fell slightly by 0.45% to $91.10 per tonne, remaining under pressure from a global supply glut and hovering near a one-year low.
Regarding supply, major mining corporations such as BHP and Rio Tinto have maintained production growth of 2–4% during the third quarter. This contributed to a 3.89-million-tonne increase in global iron ore shipments over the past week, reaching a total of 34.77 million tonnes. In the first nine months of the year, China’s cumulative iron ore imports reached 954.97 million tonnes—an increase of 4.1%.
In contrast to this rising supply, demand has remained under persistent pressure for years due to the downturn in China’s real estate and construction sectors. During the first nine months of the year, fixed-asset investment (FAI) in China declined by 7.2% compared to the same period last year. This supply-demand imbalance has pushed iron ore inventories at 35 major Chinese ports to 148.3 million tonnes.
Domestically, the Vietnamese steel market entered the fourth quarter with a mixed outlook. The construction steel segment has benefited from the year-end surge in construction activity, providing manufacturers with room to raise both scrap procurement costs and finished product prices to protect profit margins. Conversely, the flat steel segment (including hot-rolled coils and galvanized sheets) faces significant pressure from low-cost steel imports and the risk of trade defense measures.
Looking toward the long term, Vietnam’s steel industry is undergoing a restructuring process, shifting its focus toward higher-value, technically advanced segments of the value chain. A prime example is VinMetal’s investment in a high-tech rail production system—with a capacity exceeding 700,000 tons per year—strategically positioned to capitalize on the upcoming wave of capital disbursement for mega-projects, including high-speed railways and urban metro networks, over the next decade.